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Don't get had

Nine People Who Beat the Lottery (and Eight Who Got Caught)

Nobody cracked the draw. They cracked the printing, the software, the shop counter, and in one case the rules of arithmetic.

13 min read · page 3 of 10

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Jerry and Marge Selbee, who did the arithmetic

A retired couple in Michigan read the rules of a game properly and found it paid more than it cost.

~$26mGross winnings over nine years. Entirely legal.

Jerry Selbee, a retired convenience store owner with a maths degree, spent about three minutes reading the rules of a Michigan game called Winfall. It had a "roll down": when the jackpot passed $5 million without a winner, the money cascaded into the lower prize tiers instead.

He worked out that on a roll-down draw, the expected value of a $1 ticket rose above $1. Buy enough tickets and you were not gambling; you were buying a slightly underpriced asset at scale.

He and his wife Marge started buying tens of thousands of tickets per roll-down, printing them over days at cooperative shops. When Michigan closed the game they found the same structure in a Massachusetts game and drove there instead. A group of MIT students had independently found the same flaw and were doing the same thing.

None of it was illegal. A state audit found the lottery had lost nothing — the syndicates paid for their tickets like everyone else. The game was simply designed wrong, and the Selbees were the ones who read it.